Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Super Tuesday - The Greatest Political Show on Earth - UPDATED

Trigger Warning:
Let the three ring circus begin!

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls step right up and get ready for the most insane display of politics this side of Election Day 2016.  We've got massive ad buys in twelve different states, and each and every one of them is negative.  Come on down and watch the massive Trump Train plow through the competition.  But wait, we also have Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio; one is the conservative darling, the other the establishment strong man.  Both of these gentlemen are vying with each other to become the top dog for the Republican party.  Watch them toss themselves willingly in front of the Trump Train barreling down the track.  Will they derail Donald Trump's chances?  Or will they both be squashed flatter than a black guy joke at a #BlackLivesMatter protest?  

In case you missed it, folks, today is Super Tuesday.  Today twlve states are going to be voting in both the Democrat and Republican primaries.  There are a few more contests to go still, but after today we're going to have a much clearer picture of who the Republican nominee will be.

Of course Donald Trump is the favorite to win...well, pretty much everything.  In fact the only state where he doesn't seem to hold a commanding lead is Texas.  A poll commissioned by FOX4 shows Ted Cruz with an eleven point lead over Donald Trump.  Granted it's only a local news poll, but often times the local stations are more plugged into what's going on than the major networks.  Generally, though, Ted Cruz is expected to win his home state of Texas.

The same can't be said for Marco Rubio, however.  Every candidate hopes they'll at least win their home state, but Rubio's polling in Florida is nothing short of a complete disaster.  A new Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump leading Rubio by 16 points in Florida.  Not only that, but when the race comes down to just two people-Marco Rubio and Donald Trump-Trump STILL leads Rubio by double digits.  Could the situation this Super Tuesday be any more dire for Rubio?  I really don't see how.  I wouldn't expect him to win Florida today.  In fact, I wouldn't expect him to win any states today.  I would expect Rubio to drop out if he has a particularly bad showing this Super Tuesday.

John Kasich is another one who hasn't done very well, except in New Hampshire.  He's got some long odds to overcome today, and he knows it.  Kasich has faced mounting pressure to drop out of the race from several camps.  In fact Kasich himself has flatly stated that he'll drop out if he doesn't win Ohio today.  That's probably the most sensible thing he could do.  I really don't know why he thought he would do well this cycle.  Oh well, maybe next time John.

Then we've got Ben Carson.  I like Ben.  I think he's a great guy, and I love some of his ideas.  Unfortunately he doesn't have a hope in hell of winning anything today.  I'd expect to see him dead last in pretty much every state.  Will Ben Carson drop out of the race after today?  That's hard to say.  Conventional wisdom says yes, but Ben has said he'll keep running as long as people keep throwing money at him.  Fair enough.  I would say he's splitting the conservative vote...but I don't think he's ever won enough to actually split anything.

Super Tuesday is guaranteed to be one hell of a ride, regardless who wins.  I'll be posting any updates as I get them, of course, although I don't expect we'll see much in the way of hard data until later tonight.  Anything can happen today, though!

Oh, yeah, I forgot the Democrats are also doing their primaries today.  Hillary Clinton wins.  Everything.  Bernie Sanders loses.  Hard.
Sorry, Bernie.
Grab some popcorn, a couple of beers, and stay tuned ladies and gentlemen!

UPDATE: Ben Carson's In It to Win It

Ben Carson took a little time out of his (probably) busy Super Tuesday schedule to sit down with the Fox and Friends crew and explain just why he's sticking around:
Again I like Ben Carson.  I wish he had done better because I think he really does have some interesting ideas on how to fix the country.  I think he's just delaying the inevitable now, though.  Ben Carson polled really well in Iowa before the caucus.  Unfortunately it's all been downhill since then.  He says he's staying till the bitter end, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Carson dropped out after today. 

UPDATE: Rush Limbaugh Rips GOP for Trump 

It's nothing that Rush hasn't said before, but here's a video of him ripping into the GOP:
He's completely right, of course.  Voters have been outright lied to by the establishment wing of the GOP for years.  Trump's rise is 100% their fault.  The problem is they refuse to actually see it.

UPDATED: Fox Posts Results for Several States

From Fox News:

Fox News projects Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will easily win the delegate-rich Georgia primaries – while Bernie Sanders, as expected, is projected to win his home state of Vermont.

Clinton is also projected to win Virginia in the Democratic race. The GOP side is too close to call. Polls have closed in those three states, while Super Tuesday voting is under way elsewhere.

But the biggest electoral prize of this hour is Georgia. On the GOP side, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are battling for second place, while Trump is projected to win by a comfortable margin.
No surprises so far.  We'll see what the rest of the night brings.

 Share your thoughts and comments below.  Or follow me on Twitter @trigwarnblog, or check out my Facebook page.

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